Mankind is fallible, so we should not rely on our own reasoning. We cannot hope to understand the world - all we can do is stand amazed at God's creation. True knowledge only comes from revelation. We should not question received wisdom.
With hindsight, we see that the Soviet Union never had a chance of world domination, but we didn't know that then.
I start with the history, and I ask myself, 'What are the great turning points? What are the big dramatic scenes that are essential to telling the story?'
We all now tell stories by cutting from one dramatic scene to the next, whereas Victorian novelists felt free to write long passages of undramatic summary.
In my books, women often solve the problem. Even if the woman is not the hero, she's a strong character. She does change the plot. She'll often rescue the male character from some situation.
For success, the author must make the reader care about the destiny of the principals, and sustain this anxiety, or suspense, for about 100,000 words.