Most people are overconfident about their own abilities. That is probably a good thing. But we would be horrified if a physician's aide engaged in heart surgery.
Great investors need to have the right combination of intuition, business sense and investment talent.
Financial crises are an unfortunate but necessary consequence of modern capitalism.
The United States has the most sophisticated financial markets in the world, which does not leave much room to maneuver. But it also offers investors the greatest access to information and the ability to execute trades quickly and efficiently. So it is a mixed bag of opportunity.
What makes this story so remarkable is that throughout my early childhood I had ongoing learning difficulties, particularly in mathematics. I struggled to learn the multiplication table, and no matter how hard I tried, I simply couldn't remember 6 times 7 or 7 times 8.
While neurological studies have tried to identify components responsible for fear and greed, the impact on finance is less clear.
Maybe we should teach schoolchildren probability theory and investment risk management.
I don't entirely reject the idea of efficient markets. It needs updating.
Many of us like to think of financial economics as a science, but complex events like the financial crisis suggest that this conceit may be more wishful thinking than reality.
